At the time it was clear that Madonna would be up there sooner or later having clocked up 25 Top 40 hits in just under 7 years. She would eventually overtake all except Elvis, Cliff and Elton John.
Fast forward 20 years to 2010 and most of the heavyweights would clock up further Top 40 hits leaving the rest of the pack behind. The only other artist that was now amongst the other heavyweights was Kylie Minogue.
Then came Drake, Justin Bieber and Ed Sheeran who started clocking up lots of Top 40 hits in a short space of time whilst the hits were drying up for the chart heavyweights including Madonna and Kylie. At the time of writing, Drake (76 Top 40 hits) only has Elvis and Cliff ahead of him, Justin Bieber (58 Top 40 hits) is level with David Bowie, and Ed Sheeran (57 Top 40 hits) is level with Status Quo.
It got me thinking, which newer artists are we likely to see up there in years to come?
The obvious place to start is by looking at which acts who debuted after Ed Sheeran in 2011 have had the most Top 40 hits.
These are all that debuted after Ed Sheeran and have 15 or more Top 40 hits to their name at the time of writing:
Little Mix (32)
They debuted a few months after Ed Sheeran at the end of 2011. No all female group has more Top 40 hits to their name. They're currently on hiatus, but I'm sure a reunion will happen at some point particularly as their solo careers don't appear to be up to much. Whether they'll still be able to clock up the hits when they reunite remains to be seen.
Ariana Grande (31)
She made her debut in 2014 and has scored Top 40 hits every year since apart from this year so far. With Max Martin writing a sizable number of her songs though, you feel she's not done yet.
The Weeknd (30)
He made his debut in 2012 collaborating with Drake, but didn't return to the Top 40 until 2015 and has been quite prolific since. He also has Max Martin behind several of his hits. All this makes him seem the strongest candidate so far to be a future heavyweight.
Stormzy (26)
He made his debut in 2015, then in 2017 before the 3 songs per artist rule came in he was one of the artists to clock up lots of hits in one go and scored a total of 8 that year. After a quiet 2018 he scored 9 Top 40 hits in 2019, the 3 songs per artist rule almost having the opposite affect.
D-Block Europe (26)
Who the hell are D-Block Europe? I hear you ask. They're a UK rap duo and made their Top 40 debut just under 4 years ago. Only Elvis and Glee Cast can claim to have had their first 26 Top 40 hits in a shorter space of time. Yet if I didn't look at the Top 40 I wouldn't have heard of them either.
Dave (24)
Dave made his Top 40 debut just under 5 years ago, but it was 2019 where he was most prolific clocking up 11 Top 40 hits that year including one in collaboration with D-Block Europe.
Rita Ora (22)
She made her Top 40 debut in 2012 and was more prolific earlier on in her Top 40 career. Just 3 Top 40 hits in the last year along with the fact she's still always in the news suggests we're probably not getting many more hits from her. Just 8 of those 22 hits were solo efforts.
Dua Lipa (22)
Another one who seems more of a celebrity than a singer. She made her Top 40 debut in 2016 and continues to be prolific, but maybe we'll also see just 3 hits in the next 4 years. Here's hoping.
Sam Smith (20)
He's just reached a decade into his Top 40 career and topped the charts recently after 2 years away. At a rate of 2 Top 40 hits a year on average though it will be at least another 20 years before he's up there with the heavyweights.
Kendrick Lamar (20)
Did you know Kendrick Lamar is a rapper from Compton? Sounds gangsta until you see his hits include collaborations with Taylor Swift and Maroon 5. It's 9 years since he made his Top 40 debut, his last 4 came earlier in the year after 4 years away.
Post Malone (19)
He made his Top 40 debut in 2017 with 11 of his 19 hits being collaborations. I honestly had no idea he's had so many hits.
One Direction (18)
Their Top 40 debut came just 3 months after Ed Sheeran and have not had a Top 40 hit since 2015 when they went on hiatus. Given Harry Styles appears to have a successful solo career they're probably in no hurry to reunite.
Aitch (18)
Aitch made his Top 40 debut in June 2019, so is 3 years 4 months into his Top 40 career. To give an idea, it took D-Block Europe 3 years exactly to score their first 18 Top 40 hits, so he's not far behind.
KSI (17)
KSI made his Top 40 debut in 2015 didn't return until November 2019, so has clocked up 16 Top 40 hits in 3 years. He's primarily a Youtuber rather than a musician so not sure how much further he'll go, but then again I'm not sure there's much difference between a Youtuber and musician these days.
AJ Tracey (17)
Probably another who's that? AJ Tracey is a British rapper who made his Top 40 debut in 2018, but is yet to score a Top 40 hit so far this year. Just 5 of the 17 hits are solo efforts.
Billie Eilish (17)
She made her Top 40 debut just under 4 years ago. The critics seem to love her, but with only 3 of her hits in the 2nd half of her career making the Top 20 the record buying public are probably starting to disagree.
Anne-Marie (16)
She made her Top 40 debut in 2016. Just 5 of her hits are solo efforts including her first 3, so her career will probably last as long as EDM DJs want her.
Fredo (16)
He's just over 4 years into his Top 40 career with 8 of his hits come last year but he's yet to have one this year.
Becky Hill (15)
She made her Top 40 debut in 2014 and appears to be the default singer EDM DJs have on their next record. Just 2 of her hits have been solo efforts. An average of less than 2 hits a year though means it would be another 24 years until she reaches 60 Top 40 hits by which point David Guetta will be 79, surely he won't still be having hits then.
Camila Cabello (15)
Another singer who can't seem to make a record by herself, though with 6 it's an improvement on Becky Hill. She made her Top 40 debut at the start of 2017.
Tion Wayne (15)
He made his Top 40 debut at the start of 2019. Just a solitary solo effort though.
Central Cee (15)
It's taken Central Cee just 2 years to clock up his first 15 Top 40 hits. Even D-Block Europe took 2 years 4 month to reach that total. Still not as quick as Elvis or Glee Cast though.
Based on performance so far, Central Cee, D-Block Europe, Aitch and Dave look most likely to clock up enough hits to join the heavyweights. Central Cee would reach 60 hits in just 6 years time at the rate he's going.
That said, all 4 of these acts are UK rappers. Rap has been the dominant genre in the UK Top 40 since 2017 but the history books will tell you that won't be the case forever. Remember how big indie was in the Top 40 in the mid-00s, but there's barely any indie in the charts these days. Simply put, once rap falls out of favour so will these artists.
I would be surprised if rap is still the dominant genre in 6 years time. On that basis I would say the most likely artist to clock up enough hits to join the heavyweights is The Weeknd.
If anything, the fact he started his Top 40 career collaborating with Drake is a sign alone. He's learned from the master of excessive Top 40 hits.
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