4 years ago I made this post trying to predict which modern artists are going to have more Top 40 hits than most in the future. The criteria was simple, they had to debut after Ed Sheeran and have 15 or more Top 40 hits to their name.
There were 22 artists featured and I've revisited each year since to see progress and who else to add to the list. I then revised my criteria to eliminate some artists who look less likely but truth be told it didn't fully do the job it intended. For example. Rita Ora is still on the list despite having no Top 40 hits since my initial post and with just 1 Top 40 hit in the last 7 years looks unlikely to add much to her 22 hits so far.
In fact had I just stuck with the original criteria I'd now have 41 artists and 27 of them have had no Top 40 hits in the last year.
I need to be more strict in the criteria. Either they need to have had some sort of momentum in more recent years to keep on going or they already have enough hits in the bag such that they don't need too many more to become a Top 40 heavyweight.
Therefore they need to have had at least 4 Top 40 hits in the last 4 years or at least 30 Top 40 hits to their name.
Ariana Grande (45) (LY 41)
With the same number of Top 40 hits to her name as Rod Stewart she probably is into Top 40 heavyweight territory now. Having Max Martin as songwriter helps as nobody has had more Top 40 hits as a songwriter than him.
Weeknd (41) (LY 41)
If he doesn't score a Top 40 hit in what's left of 2026 then this will be the first year since 2014 that he's failed to have a Top 40 hit. It still sounds like he's popular with the youth so I expect him to return.
Central Cee (37) (LY 35)
He only just qualified in 2022 with 15 Top 40 hits and has clocked up 22 since. He's slowed down in the last year with just 2 added to his total but the fact he's still managing to have Top 40 hits in an era where most UK rappers are no longer having them suggests he's not done yet.
Dave (34) (LY 34)
Nothing in the last year, but it's only just over a year since his last Top 40 hits.
Little Mix (32) (LY 32)
Still on hiatus but they have enough in the bag to push on once the reunion happens.
Stormzy (32) (LY 32)
Nothing for over 2 years now but fits the new criteria on both counts and you can't rule out him coming back.
D-Block Europe (30) (LY 30)
Took them just 4 years to clock up their first 26 Top 40 hits with only Elvis and Glee Cast reaching that total quicker, they looked like they had the momentum to go further. Just 4 Top 40 hits since means they only just scrape the criteria on both counts.
Kendrick Lamar (30) (LY 30)
Nothing in the last year but if he comes back it will probably be another 3 to his total in one go.
Dua Lipa (27) (LY 27)
I'll repeat what I said last year: She seems to be in the news all the time but no Top 40 hits in the last year. Maybe she's enough of a celebrity now that she doesn't bother with music. We can only hope.
Charli XCX (26) (LY 21)
She wasn't even on the list 4 years ago but with 13 Top 40 hits since and 5 in the last year she certainly seems to have the momentum.
Post Malone (25) (LY 25)
Been over 2 years now since his last Top 40 hit but his 6 hits between Apr 23 - Aug 24 keep him on the list.
Billie Eilish (23) (LY 23)
Been over 2 years now since her last Top 40 hit but his 6 hits between Jul 23 - Aug 24 keep her on the list.
Raye (22) (LY 20)
She wasn't on the original list having only had 9 Top 40 hits in 6 years. She's since had 13 with 2 in the last year.
Travis Scott (21) (LY 20)
His 5 Top 40 hits in Jul and Aug 23 got him on this list but it's just 1 Top 40 hit a year since. He'll need to have another Top 40 hit in the next year to stay on the list.
Doja Cat (20) (LY 20)
Another who made the list following hits in the summer of 2023 but her 4 Top 40 hits since keeps her on the list for another year at least.
SZA (18) (LY 17)
A new addition last year and she's added 1 to her total this year. With just 6 Top 40 hits in 5 years when I started this 4 years ago she's got a bit of momentum with 12 in the last 4 years.
Headie One (17) (LY 17)
Added to the list a year later following an additional 4 Top 40 hits he's just managed 1 since so he'll need another 3 next year to stay on the list.
Sabrina Carpenter (17) (LY 15)
A new addition last year, she only had 1 Top 40 hit to her name 4 years ago but with 16 since she's got momentum.
J Hus (16) (LY 16)
His 4 Top 40 hits in Jun and Jul 23 got him on the list but he'll need another 4 in the next year to stay on the list.
21 Savage (15) (LY 15)
New to the list last year but not added to his total since. With 9 Top 40 hits in the last 4 years he'll remain on the list for the foreseeable future.
J Cole (15) (LY 15)
Added to the list in 2024 but will need another 2 Top 40 hits to remain on the list next year.
We have some new additions this year:
Olivia Rodrigo (18)
She had 7 Top 40 hits to her name 4 years ago and has added 5 in the last year.
Tate McRae (17)
Had I made my post later on in November last year then Tate McRae would have made the list with her 2 Top 40 hits that month. She's had one more since and in the last 4 years she's had 14.
Harry Styles (15)
Robbie Williams went on to have more solo hits than Take That. Harry Styles is on track to do the same and clock up more than One Direction. With 4 in the last year he's got momentum.
Burna Boy (15)
His 1 Top 40 hit in the last year has got him onto the list but he'll have to score another 2 in the next year to stay on it.
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