2 Years ago I made this post about who could be the next Drake or Ed Sheeran i.e. clock up a ridiculous amount of Top 40 hits that nobody knows. To keep it simple I looked at all acts to debut after Ed Sheeran to have 15 or more Top 40 hits to their name. A year later I looked at how things were progressing and added another 6 acts who now fitted the criteria.
I concluded by saying I may need to revise the criteria before the list gets too long. What I've decided to do is set a minimum of 17 Top 40 hits for 2011 debutants,16 for 2012 debutants and 15 for later debutants. Then next year 2013 debutants will rise to 16, 2012 debutants to 17 and 2011 debutants to 18.
Here's how it's looking then:
The Weeknd (38) (LY 35)
He's looking on track to be a future Top 40 heavyweight with another 3 Top 40 hits coming in the past year. If any of these acts are going to reach 50 Top 40 hits I think The Weeknd is most likely to do it.
Ariana Grande (35) (LY 31)
You never truly know when someone's Top 40 career is over. Ariana Grande looked like she may have had her last Top 40 hit in 2021 but she was back this year and clocked up a further 4 Top 40 hits. All four were written by Max Martin who is by far the most prolific songwriter in the Top 40 in the modern era.
Little Mix (32) (LY 32)
They're still on hiatus so no further Top 40 hits.
Stormzy (32) (LY 30)
Still leading the way for British rappers, Stormzy had 2 Top 40 hits in the last year including a chart topper. As long as rap is in fashion in the charts you suspect Stormzy will continue to clock up the hits.
D-Block Europe (30) (LY 29)
Just the one Top 40 hit in the last year for D-Block Europe who have slowed down considerably for clocking up Top 40 hits. They had 27 Top 40 hits in their first 4 years but just 3 in the last 2 years. They may have run out of steam, but you never know
Dave (30) (LY 29)
Last year I asked the question who will reach 30 Top 40 hits first, Dave or D-Block Europe? I predicted Dave and a month later that's what happened. Nothing since though but unlike D-Block Europe it doesn't look like he's actually released anything.
Central Cee (30) (LY 22)
Central Cee still has momentum in clocking up hits. It's just 4 years since he made his Top 40 debut and he already has 30 Top 40 hits to his name. The only acts to reach that milestone quicker are Glee Cast and Elvis Presley. Glee Cast never added to that total, Elvis added loads. Which way will Central Cee go?
Dua Lipa (26) (LY 23)
3 Top 40 hits in the last year, the first 2 being Top 10s and the 3rd only just scraping in at number 40. Was the just a blip or is her music going out of fashion? Hopefully the latter but I'm sure she'll still be a celebrity once the hits dry up.
Kendrick Lamar (26) (LY 20)
Kendrick Lamar tends to have a few Top 40 hits in one go and then have none for a while. After nearly 2 years away he had 3 Top 40 hits in March and another 3 in May.
Post Malone (25) (LY 21)
Rapper Post Malone has moved away from rapping and onto country music. Years ago that would almost be a guarantee not to have UK Top 40 hits, but it's different now. It does mean that if rap goes out of fashion in the Top 40 the hits would still come for him.
Billie Eilish (23) (LY 18)
It's been a pretty successful year for Billie Eilish with a number 1 and 2 number 2s amongst her 5 Top 40 hits in the past year. It means she's had more Top 40 hits than her age, just.
Rita Ora (22) (LY 22)
Just 1 Top 40 hit in the last 5 years, maybe she's given up on music now. We can only hope.
Sam Smith (22) (LY 22)
Nothing in the past year for Sam Smith but he's still around doing whatever celebrities do.
Fredo (19) (LY 19)
He's failed to make the Top 40 with any of his singles in the last year so looking unlikely he's going to add much to his total in the future.
KSI (19) (LY 18)
Just the one Top 40 hit in the last year for KSI but he's probably made many more YouTube videos. Yes I said the same thing last year.
Travis Scott (19) (LY 18)
He was a new addition last year but has had just one further Top 40 hit in the past year.
One Direction (18) (LY 18)
Now it's not possible for a full reunion the question is will the remaining members reunite or has it dashed any hopes of a reunion?
Aitch (18) (LY 18)
It only took him 3 years 4 months to clock up 18 Top 40 hits but he's failed to add to that total in the last year.
Anne-Marie (18) (LY 18)
Nothing in the last year though you feel that David Guetta and co may keep her Top 40 career going in the future.
Becky Hill (18) (LY 17)
Just the one Top 40 hit in the last year which was her singing for an EDM DJ. Probably more EDM singing to come in the future.
AJ Tracey (17) (LY 17)
Nothing last year and nothing this year either.
Headie One (17) (LY 16)
A new addition last year who has added one Top 40 hit to his total this year. He's one of the later debutants on this list though so he's got time.
Doja Cat (17) (LY 16)
She made her Top 40 debut in 2020 so another one that's got time even though she only managed the one Top 40 hit in the past year.
Tion Wayne (16) (LY 16)
Another British rapper who appears to have run out of steam for clocking up Top 40 hits.
J Hus (16) (LY 16)
An addition to the list last year helped by his collaborations with Drake, but nothing in the past year.
Jax Jones (16) (LY 15)
Jax Jones was the reason I thought the criteria needed revising given he'd scraped 15 Top 40 hits almost a decade into his Top 40 career. Just the one Top 40 hit in the last year and I did say he could make it if he manages a hit a year for the next 40 years.
Camila Cabello (15) (LY 15)
Nothing in the last year.
Cardi B (15) (LY 15)
Nothing in the last year.
We have some new additions to the list this year:
Charli XCX (20)
She was only just outside the criteria last year but has clocked up 6 Top 40 hits in the past year. It took her over 5 years to clock up her previous 6.
Raye (16)
She's had 3 Top 40 hits in the past year bringing her average to 2 Top 40 hits a year. Will she have the longevity to be a future Top 40 heavyweight though?
J Cole (15)
2 Top 40 hits in the last year including a collaboration with Central Cee. He's 8 years into his Top 40 career so again the question is will he have the longevity?
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